How Many Projections Do You Have for 2010?

I have an infinite number. Or so it seems. I'm one of those folks who draws a careful distinction between "budget" and "forecast".

The budget gets locked in early in the year and remains in place all year long. You never change the budget (barring extraordinary circumstances. A forecast is something that is of the moment. Although you can lock in a forecast (e.g. compare Q3 actuals to the forecast you created in Q2 for Q3 - with me?), newer forecasts are update with newer information.

Then there is the matter of how many model variants to run for any of those, budget or forecast. And I have found that I run dozens of scenarios for each, but I always end up with one. That one has the best knowledge and understanding of the organization built into it, along with our implicit stamp of approval b/c we put it out as the final product.

I find the High, med, low scenarios to be part of baking that final item. Not that they don't have their place, but when my board looks at me for answers, they are typically not looking for a range: they are looking for my one best answer. I may preface by saying that there are a range of outcomes from A-C, but B is what we're betting on as highest probability right now. And at the end of the day, the board is typically looking for you to hang your hat on something and this enables that to happen.